MIAMI — In a talk entitled “Ready for Anything,” futurist Rebecca Costa pushed the envelope of industry expectations.
From her opening remarks challenging the belief that the future is unknowable to the description of her own job title as futurist, Costa turned the stage into a time warp that brought seeming science fiction into the realm of today.
While acknowledging that no one has a perfect understanding of the future, Costa outlined the series of “knowables” that can be possessed about most any given situation based on history, current circumstances and myriad other algorithms that allow for reasonably accurate predictive outcomes.
As for her own role, Costa is a specialist in the failure rates of complex systems but noted that, when she tried to explain that early in her career, she was labeled a futurist. However, in outlining the types of decision trees, flow charts and other processes most any leader today must manage, she made it clear that all leaders today must wrestle with the success or failure of complex systems and that those systems are only becoming more complex.
Costa also noted that the volume, velocity and variety of change is accelerating, producing greater complexity and shorter response times. In such an environment, the number of wrong options quickly overwhelm the number of right ones.
Another factor making it increasingly difficult for leaders to get in front of change is what Costa described as “exponentiation,” the fact that complexity grows at an exponential rate.
As a result, the time leaders have to react between the time a looming problem is identified and a crisis occurs is far less than often perceived. To help attendees develop systems to cope with the environment in which they will find themselves in the years ahead, Costa offered up a series of steps they can take to get ahead of change.
She pointed to several developments already at play in the marketplace, ranging from Amazon’s experimentation with myriad drone deliver systems, driverless ground transportation, A.I.-driven drone teams, facial recognition software, new materials and “smart” technology.
Examples of this no-longer-science-fiction-technology include self-healing polymers that can self-mend without a catalyst and that could be used in things such as furniture coverings, electrical wiring and more.
She also noted work currently being done that could enable furniture to “self-assemble” without human intervention and the increasingly affordable and diverse applications of 3D printing technology.
To help companies systemize their efforts to confront complex change, she outlined six steps: identifying the challenge or need; categorizing opportunities into market driven (incremental) change or “moonshots” (higher risk, higher reward) opportunities; developing separate processes for each of those two categories; realigning talent around personality predispositions; evangelizing from the top-down; and systematizing and institutionalizing a “predaptive” culture.
The most notable change from more traditional business practices is the development of separate processes for market-driven opportunities and so-called moonshots, and the corresponding alignment of talent accordingly.
Costa outlined two personality types common to professional organizations which she termed “racers” and “climbers.” Racers are expert multi-taskers, highly verbal, high energy, performance-oriented and are easily frustrated by process and protocol. Conversely, climbers are persistent, analytical, evidence-driven, process-driven and prefer written communication.
Companies that use a single process for market-driven and moonshot initiatives often have these types of individuals working together, which often frustrates each and stifles development. Costa’s advice is to separate the processes and the individuals with racers focused on market driven developments and climbers focusing on moonshots.
I don’t think the title of your article matches the content lol. Just kidding, mainly because I had some doubts after reading the article.