At Manwah, we understand the disruption and uncertainty created by the potential imposition of a 46% tariff on furniture imports. While the situation remains fluid, we believe that a clear, proactive approach is essential to protecting business continuity for our retail partners.
Let us be clear: A furniture retailer without furniture is not a retailer at all. Halting or significantly reducing the flow of goods is not a viable solution. Likewise, re-sourcing to a “tariff-free” country is neither practical nor scalable in the short term, due to capacity limitations, longer lead times and the complexity of transitioning production.
Based on data and historical patterns — particularly from the freight cost surges in recent years — we know that a 46% tariff would likely reduce sell-through by 40% due to the strict correlation between retail price and unit volume.
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Our recommendation:
In light of these facts, we advise retailers to adjust their forecasts downward by approximately 30% but continue placing orders and keeping product flowing. This balanced approach ensures flexibility regardless of how the tariff scenario unfolds.
There are two likely outcomes:
- If the tariff holds at 46%: Retailers may experience slightly elevated inventory levels, but this can be normalized within six to eight weeks through adjusted sell-through and promotions.
- If the tariff is reduced to 20%-25%: Retailers will be well-positioned with inventory on hand, avoiding any disruption in supply and maintaining strong sell-through.
This strategy mitigates risk, protects sales continuity and provides a competitive edge in an uncertain environment. At Manwah, we are committed to supporting our partners through transparent communication, supply chain consistency, and sound business guidance.
Let’s face this challenge together — with confidence, pragmatism, and a long-term view.
Gabriele Natale
president
Manwah