The U.S. mattress industry just hit a new low and not as in a golf score sort of way.
According to the International Sleep Products Assn.’s latest data, mattress and foundation unit shipments dropped to 25.9 million in 2024. That’s not just a year-over-year decline of 6.4%; it’s a historic collapse. Shipments haven’t been this low since the Great Recession; in fact, they’re now lower. For context, 32.7 million units shipped in 2009 during one of the worst economic downturns in modern history.
In 2019, the industry moved more than 37 million units. The collapse since then — nearly 30% in five years — is staggering. The reasons are multifaceted: macroeconomic pressure, an overstimulated post-pandemic market, housing sluggishness, inflation fatigue, consumer sentiment and a still-lingering inventory hangover. But the result is the same: Retailers are fighting harder for fewer customers, and manufacturers are facing volume levels not seen in nearly two decades.
This kind of contraction is more than a correction. It’s a reckoning.
Consumers aren’t buying like they used to. Pandemic-era stimulus checks, a rush to redecorate and an e-commerce boom gave the industry a lift in 2020 and 2021. That demand was pulled forward, and now we’re living in the aftermath. For many consumers, discretionary purchases such as mattresses are once again negotiable and often delayed.
So, what now?
The first imperative is to resist panic — but not change. This isn’t the first downcycle the bedding business has seen,but what sets this one apart is that it’s happening in the midst of massive structural shifts. The rise of digital brands, the waning novelty of bed-in-a-box convenience and renewed scrutiny on pricing have all converged.
Surviving this moment demands reinvention. Here’s what that could look like:
Rethink value — beyond price. Consumers today aren’t just looking for the lowest price. They’re looking for proof, proof that a product is worth the spend, that it will last and that it fits their lifestyle. Retailers and manufacturers must do more than promote markdowns. They need to clarify why this product, why now and why it’s worth it.
Double down on RSA training. With fewer shoppers walking through the door, every interaction matters. Retail sales associates must be trained not only on product features but also on sleep education, consumer objections and solution selling. The store experience is still a powerful conversion tool.
Strengthen partnerships. Now is the time for retailers and vendors to work more closely, not at odds. Programs that help stores merchandise smarter, rotate inventory efficiently and invest in proven performers will help both sides stay profitable. Vendors who can be consultative partners will win loyalty when the cycle turns.
Watch the middle. The premium and promotional ends of the market have weathered downturns before. The middle, though — $799 to $1,499 — is getting squeezed. Companies must decide whether they are doubling down on value at that price point or repositioning to target either end more effectively.
Invest in innovation that matters. Marketing gimmicks won’t cut it in a compressed market. Products that offer real differentiation — cooling, sustainability, durability — and back it up with meaningful storytelling will stand out.
Admittedly, none of this is new. But these ideas feel more urgent in today’s environment. The industry may not be able to control macroeconomics, but it can control how it responds. Those who use this period to refine operations, clarify value and reconnect with the customer will emerge stronger and perhaps leaner, but more resilient.
The mattress slump is real. But so is the opportunity to reshape what the industry looks like on the other side.