Retail group says holiday spending will return to pre-pandemic levels, but not its pattern


WASHINGTON – The National Retail Federation is forecasting that holiday spending will reach record levels during November and December and will grow between 3% and 4% over 2022 to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion, including online and other non-store sales.

“It is not surprising to see holiday sales growth returning to pre-pandemic levels,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Overall household finances remain in good shape and will continue to support the consumer’s ability to spend.”

Despite a slower growth rate compared with the past three years, this year’s holiday spending is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019, prior to the pandemic.

The real change has been the shift to online spending. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 7% and 9% to a total of between $273.7 billion and $278.8 billion. That figure is up from $255.8 billion last year.

“We expect spending to continue through the end of the year on a range of items and experiences but at a slower pace,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Solid job and wage growth will be contributing factors this holiday season, and consumers will be looking for deals and discounts to stretch their dollars.”

Kleinhenz also noted that consumer spending on services is growing faster than spending on goods.

NRF’s latest holiday survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, which is separate from the holiday sales forecast, shows 43% of holiday shoppers planned to start making purchases before November. The survey also found consumers plan to spend $875 on core holiday items including gifts, decorations, food and other holiday-related purchases this year.

Additional holiday information is available on NRF’s Winter Holidays web page.

NRF’s holiday forecast is based on economic modeling that considers a variety of indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit and previous retail sales. NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1-Dec. 31.

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